Talent retention and prediction analysis a critical view

I was recently at the Chennai chapter of NHRD and the topic discussed was talent retention and management which was thought provoking.

But there were certain things which I felt needed proper addressing the speaker Priya Gopalakrishnan was talking about her experience in HLL and "how a person was almost shaped up to take over from others because of the sheer experience under them and today it is not possible so and people have to be promoted early.

But I felt that this was the case cause if we take the scenario 15 years back employees still had the lingering sense of loyalty as changing jobs very often was not socially acceptable unlike now where it is a part of the culture.

And based on that I was reading this article on prediction analysis where people try to find out how long an employee can stay with a firm. My frank opinion is it that I can’t figure out how it works? Now if you are pessimistic with your predictions then you expect nothing from your people and that is worse or if you’re too optimistic you end up banking on one guy which violates the basic HR principle.

So my take on this is that prediction analysis needs more time to grow to be assessed how powerful it can be as a tool.